[-James-]

I have always wondered about lots of different types of 'What If...?' questions and it really amazes me how sometimes such small events have completely changed the line of history. So here is probably one of the main 'What If?' questions there is, so what do you believe might have happened?

What if Britain had lost World War One? Would this have brought down the British Empire and the Monarchy? Would it have stopped Hitler's rise to power and ensured that the world was spared the Second World War? What do you think would have happened if Germany had been the one to emerge victorious?

(Please remember that this section is for debating historical issues only and not for general chit-chat)

[Mr Field]

Very interesting James.

One thing that I remember my university professor saying was that he never indulged in 'what if' discussions as he had enough trouble remembering what was meant to have happened, let alone what might have happened.

There's a very interesting article on the exact topic you have posted at http://www.firstworl...s/ifgermany.htm

[Mrs Faithorn]

An interesting question to start off the Discussion Forum, James.

Like you I have often been fascinated by 'What If ...?' questions - though as Mr Field hints it is often not considered to be a 'respectable' activity for academic historians.

No matter!

I wonder if you know this book Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals ? The link points to the Amazon site - not because I think you should buy it (it will very likely be in your public library) but because it is a quick way of letting you see what the book is about.

As for your real question(s) I think perhaps it's better if we teachers stay out of the picture for a bit.

[mphillips]

Its an interesting question, I think really it depends on your views and beliefs for a start really and then your own personal opinion. Some people believe that every little thing we do effects the whole world. I remember a Simpsons episode based around this idea, ages ago where Homer accidentley went back in time to the dinosaur ages and trod on an ant, then when he came back his whole life had completely changed. I know its simple but I think it illustrates how I think our actions have consequences.

If Britain lost world war one then I think that probably our lives would be completely different and we would probably not be meeting in an internet forum right now - if we even existed. All the things such as the treaty of versailles, the wall street crash and maybe even world war two might not of taken place then. However we have to remember that there would be a lot of factors surrounding why we lost the war and then there would be the issue that each of these factors would then have different consequences and before we know it, the past as we know it know would completely dissapear and we would have a completely different history. I think I'll stick to the current history the world has!

Any Others got any views? Reply - I'm really keen to hear what others say!

[Mr Moorhouse]

mphillips, on Mar 7 2004, 08:21 AM, said:

However we have to remember that there would be a lot of factors surrounding why we lost the war and then there would be the issue that each of these factors would then have different consequences and before we know it, the past as we know it know would completely dissapear and we would have a completely different history.  I think I'll stick to the current history the world has!

I'm not convinced that Britain would have been all that different. The economy was shattered in the post war era and there were several anti-establishment movements in the inter-war era. Whilst its feasible that the economy would have strained by reparations etc. the abject failure of the radical movements of the day suggests an undercurrent of conservatism within the nation that would prevent a successful revolution from, for example, the communists. The constitution may well have been changed: though to what? I'm not sure that the German Kaiser would have demanded the removal of our monarchy in the way that he was hounded out of Germany.

NB: If you read the article that Mr field links to carefully you will note that at one stage in 1918 the British Pime Minister, Dvid George, thought that we WOULD lose the war. He appears to have made contigency plans for this eventuality, it would certainly be interesting to see what these were!

[Miss Buxton]

Welcome James

Here is a series that has been shown on UK History Channel that you might find of interest:

What If? (Documentary)
Time: 22:00 to 22:30 (30 minutes long).
When: Thursday 11th March on UK History
Battle of Britain.
Colonel John Hughes-Wilson takes a counterfactual look at the evacuation of Dunkirk, asking what would have happened had the Germans won the Battle of Britain. How would Churchill have reacted and what would life have been like under the Nazis?

What If? (Documentary)
Time: 22:30 to 23:00 (30 minutes long).
When: Thursday 11th March on UK HistoryThe Spanish Armada.
Leading historians look at what could have happened at key moments in British history. This programme explores the possible outcomes had the Spanish Armada of 1588 succeeded, sketching a new time line in which Elizabeth I loses her head and the country becomes a Catholic nation once more.

[Mr R Drew]

For anyone (students or teachers) interested in the 'what if...' brand of history i would definitely recommend reading "Making History" by Stephen Fry.

A superb book, thoroughly entertaining and thought provoking too. It is based on the premise of "what if you could alter history to make sure Hitler had never been born?". i won't ruin it by telling anyone what happened, suffice to say the alternative reality that ensues could be worse than our own reality.


Back to the original question i hazard2 predictions:

~ A German take over of most of the British and French Empires, leading quite quickly to rebellions and independence as Germany would be overstretched very quickly trying to cover such a large number of territories with limited experience.

~ Possibly a war between Germany at the USSR in the 1930's, possibly leading to the recently defeated France and Britain being forced to choose between supporting a capitalist dictatorship and a communist dictatorship

[kaeim]

Personally, I prefer looking to foreign areas than domestic areas in the case of "what if's". Had Germany won the First World War, it can be considered likely that the USSR quite simply would never have been should have the Germans won. It is quite likely that at the most, a pro-German Duma would've been permitted to carry on if Germany, free from war in the West, refocused on the East ready to intervene.

France would have been given over to even more hatred, but not just outwards but inwardly as well. They would have looked for something to blame for their military defeat. The destruction of nearly a entire generation would've resulted in a cultural demoralisation, creating bad morale in the country. The Republic in France would've been dismantaled, and most likely fighting would break out amongst the French for control. It can be almost certain that either Germany, wanting to preserve its own interests in the region, or America, in an attempt to salvage some of the situation, would sponsor certain "factions".

President Wilson would almost certainly be removed from his post, and a more Isolationist-America would turn inwardly again, continuing with the same policies it did in the 1920s and beyond. It would become more prosperous due to its tarriffs and its takeover of trade routes that the British Empire, France and Germany were unable to keep up in the First World War.

The British Empire, however, would be in turmoil. The colonies, having spent huge amounts of manpower and resources (India, for example) would be in open revolt for independance. Almost certainly, the British Empire would've collapsed in a wave of violence rather than peacefully. Instead of the Empire falling after World War 2, it would fall 30 years before it should've. The Parties in the Coalition Government in charge of the UK at that time would all be heavily affected, the British public seeing most of them to blame for the loss of the war. With a failing economy and a victorious Germany, there would be likely to be large amounts of extremist Rights (voted in by the middle classes) and extremist Lefts (from the working class). Whether the two of them would be able to work together is not likely, and rioting would break out.

In short, with Germany having taken over, it is very likely that with two original major powers fragmented, and the other power turning inward, Germany would be free to do as it wished. The German political system would be likely to survive under the German Kaiser. Whether the Wall Street Crash would happen is unknown with too many variables. However, a economical crisis on the scale of the Wall Street Crash would almost certainly ensure that the UK and France would be shattered for several generations, if not more. How Germany would be affected depends upon the morale of its people.

Germany, in the event of a massive economical crisis, will be hard hit. It isn't hard to imagine there would be a great deal of satisfaction, as even before the war there were factory strikes and discontent by banned Trade Unions and various political parties. If the factories were forced to close down due to a lack of trade or business (it would be hard to imagine France or the UK would be able to buy goods from abroad), then it would be likely that the Kaiser would be forced into a constitutional Monarchy. The results, however, would not be good. With hindsight, we saw how the German people reacted to the newly formed democracy in Germany. There were at least three attempted revolutions by the Right and the Left, and that was in the 1920s, a hugely prosperous time for Germany!

With Germany preoccupied with its domestic affairs, therefore, it would be unable to keep its hold on Europe. The puppet government in Russia would be overthrown once again by its people, whether Communist or army is unknown, although it is most likely to be the Communists due to its lingering affect in its short time as the government.

This post has been edited by kaeim: 28 January 2009 - 09:48 PM